Comprehensive analysis of recent developments in international trade conflicts and their global economic implications.
Report on Trade War Developments
June 10, 2025
Executive Summary
This report analyzes the current state of the global trade war, focusing on U.S.-China tensions.
1. Global Trade Dynamics Amid Tariff Policies
Summary
  • U.S.-China trade tensions have slowed China's exports, with factory gate deflation at its worst in 22 months due to tariffs.
  • Taiwan's export growth surged as companies seek alternatives amid tariff uncertainties.
  • The U.S. is also engaged in tariff discussions with countries like India and Vietnam.
References
2. Resumption of US-China Trade Talks in London
Summary
  • Trade negotiations resumed in London after a call between Presidents Trump and Xi.
  • Discussions focus on tariffs and trade policies, especially rare earth materials.
  • Analysts warn of challenges due to tariff complexities and market volatility.
References
  • US and China hold high-stakes trade talks in London amid tariffs tension - TVP World
3. Impact of US Tariff Policies on International Markets
  • US tariffs have created uncertainty, forcing companies to adapt strategies.
  • Technology and transportation sectors are notably affected.
  • Apple warned of weak demand and tariff-related stock value risks.
References
4. Impact of Tariffs on Small Businesses
Summary
  • Tariffs have severely affected U.S. small businesses, causing financial distress.
  • About 15% of businesses have scaled down or closed due to increased costs.
References
15%
Business Reduction
Percentage of small businesses that have scaled down or closed
32%
Cost Increase
Average increase in import costs for affected businesses
$45K
Average Loss
Per business financial impact from tariff policies
5. Economic Implications of Tariff Policies
Summary
  • Tariffs have led to significant economic consequences, prompting supply chain and operational changes.
  • The middle class could face a lifetime loss of $22,000 due to tariffs.
References
National Economic Impact
GDP growth reduction of 0.5-1.2%
Industry Restructuring
Supply chain reorganization and operational changes
Household Effects
Middle class lifetime loss of $22,000
6. Debate Over Trump's Tariffs and Economic Outcomes
Summary
  • Trump's tariffs have sparked debate over their economic impact.
  • Critics highlight negative effects on consumers and Rust Belt businesses.
References
Proponents Argue
  • Tariffs protect domestic industries
  • Generate government revenue
  • Create leverage in trade negotiations
  • Reduce trade deficits
Critics Contend
  • Increase consumer prices
  • Harm manufacturing supply chains
  • Reduce export competitiveness
  • Particularly damage Rust Belt economies
7. Fluctuations in Import Volumes Due to Tariffs
Summary
  • U.S. tariffs have caused significant changes in import volumes.
  • The automotive industry saw a steep decline in vehicle shipping volumes.
References
Conclusion
The trade war continues to reshape global trade with broad economic and sectoral impacts. As negotiations proceed and companies adjust, the long-term effects of tariffs remain uncertain.